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George Osborne on the level of UK trend growth
Giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee this morning, George Osborne claimed the UK economy was back on track. He added that it was pretty clear to him that the previous Labour government had...
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Not so scary high UK inflation
We are beginning to see a flurry of concern at the Bank of England about high UK inflation. The annual rise in the consumer price index in November was 3.3 per cent, well above the 2 per cent target...
View ArticleAusterity: do more, more slowly
The Institute for Fiscal Studies, along with Barclays, are currently presenting their annual fiscal forecasts and Budget judgement. Most of the central headlines are comforting to the government. The...
View ArticleMervyn King: stuff happens (updated)
I’ve now had a few hours to digest the Inflation Report. As our news story says, the report confirmed market expectations of a series of rate rises starting in the second quarter. Of course, Mervyn...
View ArticleA forgettable Budget
I am sure George Osborne’s second Budget will soon be forgotten. The public will not thank him much for avoiding the scheduled rise in petrol duties – being hit by a bullet is more noticeable than...
View ArticleThe stretching of the cycle
It’s now quite late on Budget day and my fingers are hurting. I have probably moved far too far into cynical mode, but here is a fun fact.Continue reading »
View ArticleSpencer Dale’s nasty news
In a speech titled “MPC in the dock” this morning, Spencer Dale, Bank of England’s chief economist, provides both the best defence of the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance I have read in a long...
View ArticleThe surprisingly secretive OBR
I am currently engaged in an entertaining tussle with the Office for Budget Responsibility, the newish and independent fiscal watchdog. I am sure our disagreement will be resolved quickly. I have no...
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UK GDP: Relief without reassurance
Worrying things happening in the eurozone today, but Britain still posted 0.5 per cent growth in the third quarter. Relief rather than reassurance is the right response. Relief is apt both because the...
View ArticleThose Osborne fiddles (almost certainly not) in full
George Osborne chose to ditch straight-talking about the public finances in the Autumn Statement on Wednesday and replace it with fiddling with numbers. I think all of the figures he used in his...
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Blimey, that’s strong growth
No-one predicted that the UK economy would storm ahead quite so much in the second quarter. Initial estimates from the Office for National Statistics suggest the economy grew by 1.1 per cent between...
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UK economy: A worsening inflation-growth trade-off
There were some very good presentations at the Monetary Policy Forum, organised by Fathom Consulting this morning, all of which highlighted what a difficult job the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy...
View ArticleGood luck Robert. You’ll need it
No surprise. It’s Robert Chote for the OBR. Subject to confirmation by the Treasury Select Committee, he will start as office for Budget Responsibility chair almost immediately. Obviously on the agenda...
View ArticleThe IMF gushes about UK policy
The IMF tends to be a bit sniffy about countries’ economic policies in its annual report on countries’ economies. That often helps finance ministries in domestic political battles to do the right...
View ArticleUK economy: optimists vs. pessimists
The reporting of the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of the British economy and the important speech by Adam Posen has given the impression that the Fund is optimistic about UK prospects...
View ArticleUS optimists and pessimists
Chris has an excellent post about optimists and pessimists on the UK economy and how you tell the difference. As Chris puts it: The Treasury, the IMF, the Office for Budget Responsibility and most in...
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October MPC: Sentance vs. Posen
At today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, Andrew Sentance goes head-to-head with Adam Posen in a bid to sway the mushy middle of the Bank of England’s MPC to his point of view. Like most analysts,...
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Are you ready for £5bn more spending cuts?
Today’s public finances figures show net borrowing roughly on track to reach the Budget forecast for the deficit in 2010-11, as the chart shows. This should be good news as persistent slippage on the...
View ArticleChote looks both way on austerity
There is inevitably a focus on forecast revisions when any official body produces new predictions about the future. Today the Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain’s new fiscal watchdog, raised the...
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“Bring back Dave Ramsden”
These are the clearly audible words spoken by Michael Fallon, member of the Treasury Select Committee, to Andrew Tyrie, the Committee chairman at the end of the evidence given by Robert Chote, new...
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